Photo by Lance Anderson

Marginal Gains Theory

Small shifts, massive outcomes

The guy at my local coffee shop remembers exactly how I like my Americano. Every morning. Not because he’s a genius, but because he adjusted one tiny detail in his workflow: he started writing a single word on the lid of regulars’ cups.

For me, it’s “light” – meaning just a splash of cream.

That’s it. One word. A barely noticeable improvement to his system. But multiply that across hundreds of customers each week, and suddenly he’s the barista who “always remembers” while his competitors are still asking the same questions day after day.

This is marginal gains theory in its most caffeinated form.

The 1% That Changes Everything

Marginal gains theory isn’t sexy. It won’t make headlines or get you invited onto podcasts. It’s the antithesis of the “breakthrough” mentality we’re all addicted to.

Here’s the raw truth: most breakthroughs are illusions. The real magic happens in the margins.

The concept is simple: improve everything you do by just 1%, and those gains compound into remarkable results. British cycling coach Dave Brailsford used this approach to transform a mediocre national team into world champions through hundreds of tiny optimizations – from better handlebar grips to teaching riders how to wash their hands properly to prevent illness.

But you don’t need to win the Tour de France to benefit from this thinking.

Why We Resist Small Improvements

Let’s be honest about why this approach feels so unsatisfying:

I spent three years trying to write a book by waiting for “inspiration” to strike. Know what finally worked? Writing 300 words every morning, no matter how ordinary they seemed. Not glamorous. Not Instagram-worthy. But effective.

The Math Behind the Magic

Let’s put some numbers behind this theory:

If you improve by 1% every day for a year, you’ll end up 37 times better than when you started. Not 365% better (which would be impressive enough) – but 3700% improved.

The formula looks like this: 1.01^365 = 37.78

Conversely, if you get 1% worse each day: 0.99^365 = 0.03

That’s a 97% decline. The gap between these two paths is staggering.

But here’s where most productivity experts mislead you: you can’t actually improve 1% every single day across all domains. It’s mathematically impossible to sustain. The real approach is more selective and strategic.

Implementing Marginal Gains: The Three-Zone System

I’ve developed a framework that makes marginal gains practical rather than theoretical:

Zone 1: Daily Practices (70% of your focus)

These are your bread-and-butter habits that compound over time:

Apple-specific hack: Use Shortcuts to automate these trackers. A simple “log energy” shortcut can capture your levels with two taps.

Zone 2: Weekly Optimizations (20% of your focus)

Every Sunday, identify one process to improve by 1%:

Apple-specific hack: Use Text Replacement to instantly paste those refined communication templates anywhere. Settings → General → Keyboard → Text Replacement.

Zone 3: Monthly Experiments (10% of your focus)

These are your bigger bets that might yield 5-10% improvements:

The Counterintuitive Power of Subtraction

Here’s where I diverge from most productivity thinkers: the most powerful marginal gains often come from subtraction, not addition.

Examples that have worked for my clients:

The math supports this. If removing one element saves you 3 minutes daily, that’s 18 hours per year you’ve reclaimed through a single tiny change.

Common Myths About Incremental Improvement

Myth 1: “You need to track everything.” Reality: Measure only what matters. For most people, that’s 3-5 key metrics at most.

Myth 2: “Technology is the key to marginal gains.” Reality: The best gains often come from behavioral adjustments, not new tools. A notebook can outperform an app.

Myth 3: “The gains must be work-related.” Reality: Some of my biggest productivity jumps came from sleep optimizations and relationship improvements.

The Marginal Gains Audit

Here’s a quick process to identify your highest-leverage areas for tiny improvements:

  1. List your repeating processes. What do you do daily/weekly that impacts your results?
  2. Rank by frequency × impact. What do you do often that significantly affects outcomes?
  3. Apply the 1% question. How could this process be 1% better?

For example:

Implementing Your First Marginal Gain

The hardest part is starting. Here’s how to implement your first marginal gain today:

  1. Pick one high-frequency activity (something you do at least 3x/week)
  2. Set a timer for 10 minutes
  3. List every step in that process
  4. Circle one step that causes friction or wastes time
  5. Implement a 1% improvement to that step before day’s end

I did this with my podcast recording process and saved 7 minutes per episode by creating a simple checklist. With 100 episodes per year, that’s 11+ hours saved through one 10-minute audit.

The Compound Effect of Better Questions

The questions you ask determine the improvements you make. Here are five that consistently generate powerful marginal gains:

  1. “What could be removed entirely?”
  2. “Where am I duplicating efforts?”
  3. “What would this look like if it were easy?”
  4. “What am I measuring that doesn’t actually matter?”
  5. “What tiny adjustment would make this more enjoyable?”

That last question is crucial. Sustainability trumps optimization. A process you enjoy at 80% efficiency will outperform one you hate at 95%.

Begin Before You’re Ready

You won’t implement this perfectly. Neither did I. Neither does anyone.

Start anyway.

Find one process. Make it 1% better. Repeat.

The difference between where you are now and where you’ll be in a year isn’t about dramatic reinvention. It’s about tiny, consistent adjustments that compound when no one’s watching.

Like that barista with his Sharpie and coffee lids, the most powerful changes often look insignificant in the moment.

But we’re not playing a short game here.

And neither are you.